You did not specify what happens when it wakes up (does it stay on or does it turn off after a minute?), but since you mentioned a “lid”, thus implying it is a laptop, combined with the lack of lastwake
history, then it probably the same issue that I investigated earlier this year.
If so, then chances are good that it is not really random. What’s probably happening is that the system is switching from sleep mode to hibernation mode after a specific, but long amount of time (e.g., six or 12 hours), and by putting the system to sleep at different times, the switch happens at a seemingly random time.
For example, if the system is set to switch after six hours and you put your system to sleep at 6pm, then it will wake up at midnight. If you then sleep it at 7:45pm the next day, it will wake up at 1:45pm, which looks random, especially in the middle of the night.
This seeming randomness is exacerbated by the fact that the transition timeout period is different for battery and AC power. So even if you always sleep it at about the same time, it can be different (by several hours) if you happen to have it plugged in one day and unplugged the next.
The issue is that by disabling hybrid-sleep, the system is not supposed to switch from standby to hibernation, but that setting does not seem to work and it always wakes up to hibernate.
What you can do is to modify your power-configuration profiles to set the hibernation to be the same as the sleep setting or (not recommended) just disable it altogether. Either way, make sure to change it for all power profiles and modes, that is, for Power Saver, Balanceed, and High Performance (and any others you created) and for each profile, set it for both Battery and Online modes.